The current world population is 8.3 billion, but growth is slowing and is estimated to peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s. This is due to falling birth rates, and some countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and much of Europe are already experiencing population decline. People are living longer, and the proportion of elderly people is increasing.
So why is this a problem? Current governments point to the fact that a proportional increase in elderly people means that they have to be supported by a decreasing working population. Pensionable age is already increased to 67 in the UK and other countries and is predicted to rise further. This means fewer jobs for younger people because older people continue to work to a higher age. In many countries, there are already job shortages for young people leaving school or University.
Our economy works on a continuous growth system; if yearly results fall below the previous year, the share price falls, and shareholders are unhappy. So, to grow, companies merge or take over others, with a subsequent reduction in cost and headcount, leaving more people unemployed. Couple this with AI and robotics there will be fewer jobs available, whether it be skilled or unskilled.
So how are Governments going to be able to fund the cost of looking after the aged? The USA Secretary of War recently asked Congress for 3 trillion dollars to make bombs and missiles. NATO has committed to increase its spending on armaments to 6% of GDP. What a waste of money. Each ballistic missile that Russia launches against Ukraine costs $ 1 million.
Why are people having fewer children? The traditional way of life of my parents, where the man is the breadwinner and the woman stays at home and runs the household and brings up the children, has basically disappeared in the West. Women are far better educated and pursue a career, which limits the time they can have children. The high cost of living means that in most households both men and women have to work to make ends meet, and the bulk of housework still falls on the woman. People are getting married later in life and having a child much later. There is a housing affordability crisis in most countries in the West, adding to the stress of young married people. Throw in the repayment of education loans, and it really means that it’s almost a miracle if anyone has a child at all.
One possibility is immigration; there are populations from countries who are keen and even desperate to move to a richer country with more opportunities. But often this presents social problems with different religions and customs and immigrants don’t assimilate into the population.
On my travels, I have seen that countries are considerably overpopulated such as China, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Japan. In the UK, in my lifetime, the population has gone from 35 million to over 70 million. This has created the loss of countryside, birds, animals, and fewer wild places. We are currently in a genocide of our wildlife.
I believe governments must change their thinking and budget to increase spending on people’s welfare and stop the massive waste of money on armaments and prestige projects such as high-speed railways.